Appraising the oil-stock nexus during the COVID-19 pandemic shock: a panel threshold analysis.

We examine the oil-stock nexus in 24 countries amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and test for threshold effects on oil prices using Hansen (1999) panel dynamic threshold model and recent extensions of Kremer et al. (2013) and Seo and Shin (2016). We find evidence of nonlinearities and threshold effects in oil prices. As an addition to literature, our estimated model shows that stock market prices react in a regime-style manner, when the joint effects of oil prices, exchange rate changes, number of reported cases, and the number of death due to COVID-19 pandemic are analyzed. This is in support of the theoretical model of investor sentiment by Barberis et al. (1998). Therefore, we are of the opinion that policymakers, governments, and investors in their business decision-making process should put into consideration and also observe changes in the global reported cases alongside the number of deaths and how oil prices are evolving, as the global economy is further affected by the COVID-19 pandemic shock.

COVID-19 Deaths Cases Impact on Oil Prices: Probable Scenarios on Saudi Arabia Economy.

The purpose of this paper is to discuss death cases on the World, exacerbated investor fears, uncertainties, and increased volatility of crude oil prices in financial markets. The reaction absorbed the epidemic gradually until January 22. Still, the market situation changed soon with a sharp drop in prices, and prices slowly recovered after that until June 14. The data of this research using an econometric model, the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag), according to the Gets methodology, using daily data, January 22 -June 14, 2020. Our ARDL shows, the death ratio has a significant negative effect on oil price dynamics. However, the death ratio has an indirect impact on volatility in Crude Oil prices. The findings show that the death toll of COVID-19 has a significant impact on oil prices in Saudi Arabia (KSA). However, the preliminary results mainly influence by the situation reported in the USA. When we assess the case outside the USA, and we see the positive effect of the COVID-19 death figures on oil prices, therefore, stress the amplification of death-related risks to the financial market and the real economy, caused by increased, policy-induced economic uncertainty in the United States.

Return and volatility transmission between oil price shocks and agricultural commodities.

This paper studies the connectedness between oil price shocks and agricultural commodities. Our sample period ranges from January 2002 to July 2020, covering the three global crises; Global Financial Crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis and Covid-19 pandemic crisis. We employ Granger causality tests, and the static and dynamic connectedness spillover index methodology. We find that the shocks in oil prices are Granger-caused mainly by price changes of grains, live cattle, and wheat, while supply shock granger causes variations mostly in grain prices. We find that, from the point of view of static connectedness, for both, price and volatility spillovers, the livestock is the largest transmitter, while the lean hogs are the major receiver. Our dynamic analysis evidences that connectedness increases during the financial crisis period. Our results are potentially useful for investors, portfolios managers and policy makers.